The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (Genius) Act is expected to be passed in the U.S. in the coming months, and that could trigger an almost 10-fold jump in stablecoin supply, investment bank Standard Chartered said in a research report Tuesday.
U.S. legislation “would further legitimise the stablecoin industry,” analysts led by Geoff Kendrick wrote, adding that “we estimate this would cause total stablecoin supply to rise from $230bn today to $2tn by year-end 2028.”
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies whose value is tied to another asset, such as the U.S. dollar or gold. They play a major role in cryptocurrency markets and are also used to transfer money internationally.
The bank noted that the proposed legislation was cleared by the Senate Banking Committee in March and looks likely to be passed by Congress and then signed off by President Donald Trump around the middle of the year.
An increase in stablecoin supply has implications for U.S. Treasury buying and U.S. dollar hegemony, the report said.
The bank’s estimated increase in stablecoin issuance would require the additional buying of $1.6 trillion of Treasury bills over the next four years.
“This would be enough to absorb all the fresh T-bill issuance planned for the rest of Trump’s second term,” the authors wrote.
Increased demand for dollar-denominated stablecoin reserves would result in additional demand for U.S. dollars, the bank said, and this should support dollar hegemony.
Standard Chartered said it expects the industry to move to the model used by USDC issuer Circle, the second-largest stablecoin issuer, which holds 88% of its reserves in Treasury bills with an average duration of 12 days.
Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer, holds 66% of its USDT reserves in Treasury bills, the report noted.
